BUY · GHS 7.00 current · GHS 8.75 target · +25.0% capital upside · +31.9% total return · High conviction on franchise, Moderate on entry price

A Compounding Franchise at a Price That Now Requires Re-Rating — prices as at 25 August 2026.

MetricValue
Investment ratingBUY
Current share priceGHS 7.00 (25 Aug 2026)
Target priceGHS 8.75
Capital upside+25.0%
Dividend yield (FY2025)~6.9%
Expected total return~31.9%
FY2025 EPS · 2026E EPSGHS 0.59 · GHS 0.76
Trailing P/E · Forward P/E~11.9x · ~9.2x
Stated horizon12–24 months (see Section 11)
ConvictionHigh on franchise, Moderate on entry price

1. Investment Summary

E3 Financials initiates coverage on MTN Ghana (Scancom PLC) with a BUY recommendation and a target price of GHS 8.75. At the GSE closing price of GHS 7.00 on 25 August 2026, this implies approximately 25.0% capital upside. Including the FY2025 dividend of GHS 0.48 per share, the potential total return is approximately 31.9%.

MTN Ghana is the highest-quality operating franchise in the E3 coverage universe and the most liquid stock on the exchange. The investment case rests on market leadership, sustained data consumption growth, Mobile Money monetisation, strong operating leverage and a rapidly growing dividend. At GHS 7.00 the stock is no longer a deep-value opportunity; it is a growth-at-a-reasonable-price and dividend compounding proposition.

Key investment points

  • Revenue increased from approximately GHS 2.32bn in 2015 to GHS 24.43bn in 2025, a compound annual rate near 24.7%.
  • Profit after tax increased from approximately GHS 431m in 2015 to GHS 7.84bn in 2025, a compound annual rate near 30.0%.
  • The 2025 EBITDA margin reached approximately 60.1%, with EBITDA growing faster than revenue across several recent periods.
  • Dividend per share reached GHS 0.48 in 2025, more than quadrupling since 2021 on a payout ratio near 80%.
  • Data and fintech remain the principal structural growth engines, with data revenue up 48.8% and MoMo revenue up 35.7% in 2025.
  • H1 2026 confirmed that growth continued after the exceptional 2025 result, with service revenue up approximately 32.3% and profit after tax of approximately GHS 5.1bn.

What this rating does and does not rest on

The franchise case is strong and well evidenced. Ten years of compounding, a 60% EBITDA margin, dominant data share and a fintech platform with 19.3 million active users are not in question.

The target price is a different matter. At GHS 7.00 against 2026E EPS of GHS 0.76, MTNGH trades at approximately 9.2x forward earnings. At GHS 8.75 it would trade at approximately 11.5x. The target therefore requires both the forecast earnings growth and roughly 2.3 turns of multiple expansion.

Section 11 sets out what that assumption rests on, and where the valuation in this report needs further work before it can carry the weight the rating places on it.


2. Company Overview

MTN Ghana is the country's largest telecommunications operator and a dominant digital-services platform. Core businesses comprise mobile voice, data, Mobile Money, enterprise services and digital products. The company listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange in 2018 and is the most heavily traded equity on the exchange.

Operating baseScale
Total subscribers~31.2 million
Active data users~19.9 million
Active Mobile Money users~19.3 million
Mobile data market share~70%
Mobile voice market share~60%
4G population coverage98.9%

Business mix

SegmentShare of revenue
Network services~68%
Digital and fintech~27%
Interconnect and roaming~2%
Other services~2%

The concentration of nearly seven tenths of revenue in network services, against 27% in the faster-growing digital and fintech segment, is worth holding in mind when assessing the growth narrative. The fintech story is the more compelling one, but it is not yet the larger one.


3. Ten-Year Financial Record

The series below consolidates figures reported in MTN Ghana annual-report financial summaries and E3 Financials source material. Figures are rounded and should be read as analytical rather than audit-ready data.

GHS m20152016201720182019
Revenue2,3162,7733,4244,2195,182
EBITDA9441,1331,3631,5882,630
Operating profit6588751,0031,1241,829
Profit after tax4315437197551,008
EPS (GHS)0.0430.0510.0670.0670.082
DPS (GHS)0.02560.00990.04370.05000.0600
GHS m202020212022202320242025
Revenue5,9217,7239,91613,34917,94824,430
EBITDA3,1784,2495,5647,80010,24114,690
Operating profit2,3013,2144,3656,0767,92511,960
Profit after tax1,3952,0012,8563,9825,0297,840
EPS (GHS)0.1060.1510.2150.3000.3790.590
DPS (GHS)—0.1150.1640.2250.3050.480

Revenue increased more than tenfold and profit after tax roughly eighteenfold across the period, giving approximate compound annual growth of 24.7% and 30.0% respectively. This is exceptional compounding for a business of this scale in a single frontier market.

Two presentational notes. The 2015 to 2017 per-share figures pre-date the 2018 listing and are retrospective rather than market-observed. The EPS line for 2020 to 2025 has been derived from reported profit after tax and a share count of approximately 13.29 billion, which is implied by FY2025 profit of GHS 7.84bn against EPS of GHS 0.59; the source report omitted this row, and it should be verified against the audited accounts.


4. Earnings and Operating Leverage

MTN Ghana's earnings trajectory demonstrates increasing scale benefits. EBITDA has grown faster than revenue across several recent periods, reflecting pricing, traffic growth, mix improvement and operating leverage.

Metric2023202420252025 growth
RevenueGHS 13.35bnGHS 17.95bnGHS 24.43bn+36.1%
EBITDAGHS 7.80bnGHS 10.24bnGHS 14.69bn+43.5%
EBITDA margin58.4%57.1%60.1%+300bps
Operating profitGHS 6.08bnGHS 7.93bnGHS 11.96bn+50.9%
Profit after taxGHS 3.98bnGHS 5.03bnGHS 7.84bn+55.9%

The pattern is unambiguous. In 2025, revenue grew 36.1% while EBITDA grew 43.5% and profit after tax grew 55.9%. Each successive line of the income statement grew faster than the one above it, which is the signature of a business with substantial fixed-cost absorption still ahead of it.

The forecast in Section 10 assumes this leverage moderates rather than persists. That is the prudent assumption, but investors should note that the case for the target price would strengthen considerably if margin expansion continued at the 2025 pace, and weaken if the EBITDA margin reverted toward the 57% level of 2024.

The source report also cites a forecast return on equity of approximately 66%. That figure implies an equity base near GHS 11.9bn against FY2025 profit of GHS 7.84bn. It should be sourced to the audited balance sheet before publication, as a return of that magnitude is a material component of any quality argument and will be tested by readers.


5. Data: The Core Growth Engine

Data is increasingly the centre of MTN Ghana's revenue and traffic economics.

Indicator2025Q1 / H1 2026
Data revenue growth+48.8%+47.1% (H1)
Data traffic growth>57%—
4G population coverage98.9%—
Average usage per user~14.7GB per month—
Active data subscribers19.9 million20.6 million (Q1)
Mobile data market share~70%—

The strategic implication is that data monetisation provides a structural volume-growth opportunity, while increasing smartphone penetration and usage create recurring demand for network capacity. Average consumption of approximately 14.7GB per user per month is high by regional standards and indicates that the growth is being driven by usage intensity rather than subscriber addition alone.

The constraint is that data growth of this magnitude requires continuous network investment. Section 8 addresses the capital expenditure this implies, and Section 14 treats capital intensity as a principal risk.


6. Mobile Money and Fintech

Mobile Money broadens MTN Ghana's economics beyond telecommunications. The platform serves approximately 19.3 million active users, with revenue growing 35.7% in 2025 and approximately 23.3% in H1 2026.

The fintech opportunity is supported by transaction frequency, merchant payments, digital financial services and increasing integration between connectivity and financial services. The structural separation of the fintech business completed on 31 March 2026 without the issuance of new MTN Ghana shares.

Two items to reconcile on MoMo

Growth rate. This report cites MoMo revenue growth of 35.7% for 2025. Earlier E3 material on the same period gives 33.3%. The figures should be reconciled to the audited segment disclosure.

User base. Active MoMo users are given as 19.3 million at FY2025. Separate Q1 2026 data indicates approximately 18.0 million, a decline of roughly 1.3 million, alongside deceleration in MoMo revenue growth.

A decline of that size warrants explanation rather than omission. The likely candidates are a definitional change tied to the 31 March fintech separation, a base-cleaning of dormant wallets, or genuine competitive attrition. These have materially different implications for the fintech growth assumption embedded in the forecast.

This should be resolved against company disclosure before the report is relied upon, since fintech is 27% of revenue and carries a disproportionate share of the growth narrative.


7. Dividend Analysis

Year20212022202320242025
DPS (GHS)0.1150.1640.2250.3050.480
Year-on-year growth—+42.6%+37.2%+35.6%+57.4%
EPS (GHS)0.1510.2150.3000.3790.590
Payout ratio76%76%75%80%81%

The dividend has become an increasingly important part of the MTNGH total-return proposition. At GHS 7.00, the FY2025 dividend of GHS 0.48 corresponds to a historical yield of approximately 6.9%, the highest in the E3 coverage universe by a wide margin. In Q1 2026 the company declared a first-quarter gross dividend of GHS 0.06 per share across Scancom and MMFL.

The payout ratio has drifted upward from roughly 75% to 81% over five years. That trend supports the income case but reduces the buffer between distributions and reinvestment needs, which matters for a business with the capital intensity described in Section 8. Future dividends will depend on earnings, cash generation, capital expenditure requirements and board policy.

Note: some data services quote FY2025 dividend per share of GHS 0.40 rather than the GHS 0.48 used here, which would give a yield near 5.7% rather than 6.9%. Given that the dividend is roughly a fifth of the total-return case, this discrepancy should be settled against the declared distribution before publication.


8. Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation

ItemAmount
Short-term assets~GHS 34.8bn
Short-term liabilities~GHS 34.7bn
Long-term liabilities~GHS 2.7bn
Implied current ratio~1.00x
FY2025 capital expenditure~GHS 6.4bn

Capital expenditure of approximately GHS 6.4bn in 2025 was directed principally toward network modernisation, spectrum acquisition and IT infrastructure. Against EBITDA of GHS 14.69bn this represents a capex-to-EBITDA ratio near 44%, which is substantial and reflects the network investment required to sustain the data growth described in Section 5.

The current ratio needs explaining, not asserting

Short-term assets of approximately GHS 34.8bn against short-term liabilities of approximately GHS 34.7bn gives a current ratio of roughly 1.00x. The source report describes liquidity as manageable in the context of operating cash generation.

That conclusion is probably right, but it is asserted rather than demonstrated, and a 1.00x current ratio at a company distributing 81% of earnings is the kind of figure a sceptical reader will stop on.

The most likely explanation is that Mobile Money customer float sits on both sides of the balance sheet, inflating current assets and current liabilities roughly equally and making the ratio a poor measure of corporate liquidity. If that is the case, the report should say so and present the balance sheet excluding MoMo float.

Absent that disaggregation, the balance-sheet section is the weakest evidenced part of the investment case. Free cash flow after capex and dividends would be the more informative disclosure.


9. H1 2026 Update

MetricH1 2026Growth
Service revenue~GHS 15.0bn+32.3%
Profit after tax~GHS 5.1bn—
Earnings per share~GHS 0.388—
Data revenue—+47.1%
Mobile Money revenue—+23.3%

H1 2026 indicates that MTN Ghana continued to grow strongly after the exceptional 2025 earnings year. Simple annualisation of H1 EPS of GHS 0.388 gives an indicative FY2026 EPS near GHS 0.78, marginally above the GHS 0.76 used in the forecast. The estimate in Section 10 is therefore not aggressive relative to the half-year run rate.

This is an analytical annualisation rather than a management forecast. Seasonality, cost phasing, taxation, capital expenditure and second-half performance could produce a materially different result.

One divergence within the half is worth noting. Data revenue growth of 47.1% remains close to the 2025 rate of 48.8%, while Mobile Money revenue growth decelerated from 35.7% to 23.3%. Read alongside the MoMo user question in Section 6, the fintech line is the part of the growth story showing the clearest signs of moderation.


10. Forecasts

GHS bn2025A2026E2027E2028E
Revenue24.4331.5039.0047.00
Revenue growth+36.1%+28.9%+23.8%+20.5%
Profit after tax7.8410.1012.5015.00
PAT growth+55.9%+28.8%+23.8%+20.0%
EPS (GHS)0.590.760.941.13

Forecasts are E3 Financials estimates constructed from the reported 2025 base and the 2026 growth trajectory. They are not company guidance. The model assumes gradual normalisation from the exceptional 2025 earnings growth rate while retaining strong data and fintech momentum.

The structure of the forecast is internally consistent: revenue and profit after tax grow at converging rates from 2026, implying that the margin expansion of 2025 is not extrapolated. This is appropriately conservative. The principal forecast risk is not the growth rate but the fintech assumption, given the MoMo deceleration described in Sections 6 and 9.


11. Valuation

MTNGH combines a mature telecom cash-flow profile with unusually strong growth and a meaningful dividend, which argues for a blended approach rather than a single method.

Method ranges as published

MethodIndicative rangeMidpointImplied forward P/E
Conservative P/EGHS 7.00–7.50GHS 7.259.2x – 9.9x
Base-case P/EGHS 8.50–9.00GHS 8.7511.2x – 11.8x
Bull-case P/EGHS 9.50–10.50GHS 10.0012.5x – 13.8x
Dividend / earnings frameworkGHS 8.00–9.00GHS 8.5010.5x – 11.8x
Stated target price—GHS 8.7511.5x

Implied multiples are calculated against 2026E EPS of GHS 0.76.

The blended target is not a blend

The stated target of GHS 8.75 is exactly the midpoint of the base-case P/E range of GHS 8.50 to GHS 9.00. It is not a weighted combination of the four methods presented.

A genuine blend would produce a different number. Weighting the three scenario midpoints at 25% / 50% / 25% gives GHS 8.69; including the dividend framework at any material weight pulls the result below GHS 8.70, because that method's midpoint of GHS 8.50 sits below the base case.

This is a presentational problem rather than an analytical one — the base case may well be the right answer — but the report should either publish the weights that produce GHS 8.75, or describe the target as the base-case P/E valuation, which is what it is.

Every other initiation in the E3 coverage universe publishes a method, weight and contribution table summing to the blended figure. MTNGH should match that standard, particularly as it carries the largest recommended portfolio weight.

What the target requires

At GHS 7.00At GHS 8.75Change required
Forward P/E (2026E EPS 0.76)9.2x11.5x+2.3 turns
Trailing P/E (FY25 EPS 0.59)11.9x14.8x+2.9 turns
Dividend yield (DPS 0.48)6.9%5.5%−140bps

The target assumes both the forecast earnings growth and a re-rating of roughly 2.3 turns on forward earnings. Note that the low end of the conservative case, GHS 7.00, is the current price: that scenario assumes no re-rating at all and simply holds the multiple constant while earnings grow.

Whether 11.5x forward is the right multiple for this business is a defensible question in either direction. A company compounding earnings near 29% with a 60% EBITDA margin, dominant market share and a 6.9% yield would trade well above 11.5x in most markets. Against that, the GSE has re-rated substantially through 2026, frontier-market multiples carry a structural discount, and the report offers no peer set or discounted cash flow to anchor the judgement.

The missing method

MTNGH is the natural discounted cash flow candidate in the E3 coverage universe. It has stable and predictable cash generation, a documented capital expenditure profile and a mature dividend policy. A DCF would anchor the target in the company's own economics rather than in an assumed exit multiple, and would test whether GHS 8.75 is supported by the free cash flow the business actually produces.

The current valuation is entirely relative. That makes the target a statement about what the market should be willing to pay, rather than about what the business is worth. For the largest recommended position in the portfolio, that is a gap worth closing.


12. Scenario Analysis

ScenarioIndicative valueKey assumptions
BearGHS 6.00–7.00Growth normalises quickly; regulatory or capex pressure; lower multiple
BaseGHS 8.50–9.00Strong data and fintech growth; earnings compound 20–25%; stable multiple
BullGHS 9.50–10.50Sustained earnings growth above 25%; stronger cash generation; premium multiple

The scenarios are presented as ranges without assigned probabilities. The other three initiations in the E3 coverage universe assign probabilities and report a probability-weighted value, which allows the target to be tested against the distribution rather than asserted alongside it.

Applying a conventional 25% / 50% / 25% distribution to the midpoints of the ranges above gives a probability-weighted value of approximately GHS 8.69, marginally below the stated GHS 8.75 target. That is close enough to be immaterial, and it suggests the target is not aggressive relative to the scenario set. Publishing the probabilities explicitly would make this visible rather than inferred.

Horizon

The target is stated over a 12 to 24 month horizon. The GCB, ETI and EGH initiations all use 12-month targets. This makes cross-coverage comparison unreliable: 25.0% over up to two years annualises to between 11.8% and 25.0%, and at the lower bound MTNGH would rank behind GCB rather than ahead of it.

The house standard should be a single horizon. If the 12 to 24 month framing is deliberate because the re-rating thesis needs time to play out, that reasoning should be stated, since it is itself a material qualification on the rating.


13. Competitive and Strategic Position

MTN Ghana's primary competitive advantage is scale. A large subscriber base supports network utilisation, distribution reach, brand recognition and fintech network effects. High data usage and Mobile Money adoption create cross-selling opportunities between connectivity and financial services that no competitor can currently match.

  • Network scale and spectrum investment create high barriers to entry.
  • Data and digital usage create increasing customer dependence on the MTN ecosystem.
  • Mobile Money creates a two-sided network linking customers, agents, merchants and financial services providers.
  • The highest GSE liquidity in the coverage universe reduces execution risk relative to most local names, a genuine and underrated advantage in a market where thin depth materially affects realisable returns.

The key strategic question is whether MTN can continue converting traffic growth into revenue growth without proportionate increases in cost and capital expenditure. The 2025 margin profile and the H1 2026 trajectory provide evidence that substantial operating leverage remains. The counter-consideration is that a 44% capex-to-EBITDA ratio and an 81% dividend payout leave limited room for both simultaneously if growth requires acceleration in network investment.


14. Key Risks

  • Regulation. Telecom tariffs, taxes, spectrum requirements and fintech regulation can materially affect returns. A dominant market position invites pricing and competition remedies, and significant market power designation is a live consideration for an operator with roughly 70% data share.
  • Capital intensity. Network upgrades, 5G and technology investment require substantial capital expenditure. FY2025 capex of GHS 6.4bn represents approximately 44% of EBITDA.
  • Currency. Imported network equipment and foreign-currency obligations raise costs during periods of cedi weakness.
  • Competition. Pricing pressure from telecom and fintech competitors could reduce average revenue per user or compress margins. The MoMo deceleration in H1 2026 may be an early indication.
  • Valuation. At GHS 7.00 the market already prices significant future growth, and the target requires approximately 2.3 turns of further multiple expansion.
  • Dividend sustainability. A payout ratio near 81% competes directly with network investment and balance-sheet requirements.
  • Fintech separation. The structural separation completed on 31 March 2026 changes the reporting perimeter and may affect the comparability of MoMo metrics across periods.

15. Investment Conclusion

MTN Ghana remains a preferred long-term equity exposure on the Ghana Stock Exchange. The ten-year record demonstrates exceptional revenue and earnings compounding, and data and fintech provide credible structural growth engines. The company is the most liquid stock on the exchange and offers the highest dividend yield in the E3 coverage universe.

We initiate at BUY with a target price of GHS 8.75, implying approximately 25.0% capital upside and 31.9% total return from GHS 7.00.

The principal caveat is valuation. Investors should not assume the historical re-rating can continue indefinitely, and the target requires roughly 2.3 turns of multiple expansion on top of forecast earnings growth. The strongest case for ownership is the combination of earnings growth, market leadership, cash generation and dividend compounding, rather than the expectation of a higher multiple in isolation.

For E3 Financials, MTNGH should be considered a core growth-and-income holding rather than a purely defensive telecom position.

Open items before external circulation

  • Publish the valuation in house format: method, implied value, weight and contribution, summing to the blended figure — or restate GHS 8.75 as the base-case P/E valuation, which is what it currently is.
  • Add a discounted cash flow to anchor the target in the company's own economics rather than an assumed exit multiple.
  • Assign probabilities to the scenario set and report the probability-weighted value.
  • Standardise the target horizon to 12 months, or state why a 12–24 month horizon is appropriate for this name.
  • Resolve the MoMo user decline, the MoMo growth rate discrepancy, the dividend per share discrepancy and the share count discrepancy set out in the data notes.
  • Disaggregate Mobile Money float from the balance sheet, or present free cash flow after capex and dividends in its place.
SummaryValue
Investment ratingBUY
Target priceGHS 8.75
Current priceGHS 7.00 (25 Aug 2026)
Capital upside+25.0%
Total return~31.9% including dividend
Stated horizon12–24 months
ConvictionHigh on franchise, Moderate on entry price
Principal riskValuation — target requires ~2.3 turns of re-rating

16. Sources, Data Notes and Certification

Sources

  • MTN Ghana / Scancom PLC annual reports and audited financial statements.
  • MTN Ghana investor disclosures, including Q1 2026 and H1 2026 results releases.
  • Ghana Stock Exchange market information. Closing price of GHS 7.00 at 25 August 2026.
  • AfricanFinancials company and financial information archive.
  • Emmanuel Frimpong, MTN Ghana investment case note, March 2026, used as the analytical base for the investment thesis, segment discussion and selected 2021–2025 figures.

Data notes

The following items are unresolved across source material and should be settled before this report is used in an investment mandate, client communication or regulatory filing.

ItemVersion AVersion BMateriality
MoMo revenue growth 202535.7%33.3%Low
Active MoMo users19.3m (FY25)18.0m (Q1 26)High
FY2025 dividend per shareGHS 0.48GHS 0.40High
Shares outstanding~13.29bn implied~12.3bn impliedMedium
Revenue basisTotal revenueService revenueMedium

The share count discrepancy arises because FY2025 profit after tax of GHS 7.84bn against EPS of GHS 0.59 implies approximately 13.29 billion shares, while the market capitalisation quoted on the 25 August GSE snapshot implies approximately 12.3 billion at GHS 7.00. Per-share figures in this report follow the profit-and-EPS derivation. The discrepancy should be resolved against the share register.

The report uses revenue and service revenue interchangeably in places. These differ for telecom operators, and the distinction affects the growth rates quoted in Sections 3 and 9. Historical financial figures should be reconciled to the relevant audited annual statements.

Analyst certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the independent opinion of E3 Financials regarding MTN Ghana. Forecasts, target price and scenario values are analyst estimates based on public information available at the date of publication and are not guarantees of future performance.

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared by E3 Financials for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation or personalised investment recommendation, and it does not take account of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual reader. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial circumstances before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Target prices, forecasts and opinions are subject to change without notice. Market prices quoted are as at the dates stated and may not reflect prices available at the time of reading.


E3 Financials Research Desk · Accra, Ghana · fcabfund@gmail.com